WarNews247 presents Part A of a major Chinese analysis of the Russo-Ukrainian war and its aftermath.
The analysis is signed by Hu Wei, vice president of the State Council Public Policy Research Center, president of the Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, chairman of the Chahar Institute Academic Committee, professor and doctoral supervisor.
Possible consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian War
“The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most serious geopolitical conflict since World War II and will have far greater global consequences than the 9/11 attacks.
I. Predicting the future of the Russo-Ukrainian War
1. Vladimir Putin may not be able to achieve his expected goals, which brings Russia to a tipping point. The purpose of Putin’s attack was to completely solve the Ukrainian problem by defeating Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, replacing its leadership and placing a pro-Russian government.
“Western Involvement and Further Escalation”
2. The conflict may escalate further and the possible involvement of the West in the war cannot be ruled out. While escalating the war is costly, there is a good chance Putin will not give up easily, given his character and strength.
“The government in exile and the guerrilla war”
3. Even if Russia manages to occupy Ukraine, it is still a political hot potato. Russia will then carry a heavy load.
“The collapse of Russia”
4. The political situation in Russia can change or dissolve in the hands of the West. Following the failure of Putin’s Blitzkrieg, hopes for Russia’s victory are slim and Western sanctions have reached unprecedented levels.
II. Analysis of the effects of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the international landscape
1. The United States will regain leadership in the Western world and the West will become more united. At present, public opinion believes that the Ukraine war marks the complete collapse of US hegemony, but the war will actually bring France and Germany, which wanted to secede from the US, back into the NATO defense, destroying Europe’s dream of achieving independent diplomacy and self-defense.
New “Iron Curtain”
2. The “Iron Curtain” will be re-created not only from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, but between the western camp and its rivals.
3. The power of the West will increase significantly, NATO will continue to expand and US influence in the non-Western world will increase. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, regardless of how Russia achieves its political transformation, it will greatly weaken the anti-Western forces in the world. The scenes after the Soviet and Eastern unrest of 1991 can be repeated again. The West will have more “hegemony” both in terms of military power and in terms of values and institutions, its hard power and soft power will reach new heights.
“If Putin falls, China is lost”
4. China will be more isolated. For these reasons, if China does not take precautionary measures to respond, it will face further restraint from the US and the West. Once Putin’s down, the US will no longer have to deal with two strategic rivals, but will only have to put China in a strategic constraint.
Europe will be further cut off from China. Japan will become the vanguard against China. South Korea will be further included in the USA.
The Tribulation is commencing…
Please repent, carry your cross daily and accept the free gift of Jesus Christ’s Death on the Cross for payment for your sins.
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