This study proposes a simulation model of a new type of infectious disease based on Ebola haemorrhagic fever and Zika fever. SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model has been widely used to analyse infectious diseases such as influenza, smallpox, bioterrorism, to name a few. On the other hand, Agent-based model begins to spread in recent years. The model enables to represent behaviour of each person in the computer.
It also reveals the spread of an infection by simulation of the contact process among people in the model. The study designs a model based on Epstein’s model in which several health policies are decided such as vaccine stocks, antiviral medicine stocks, the number of medical staff to infection control measures and so on. Furthermore, infectious simulation of Ebola haemorrhagic fever and Zika fever, which have not yet any effective vaccine, is also implemented in the model. As results of experiments using the model, it has been found that preventive vaccine, antiviral medicine stocks and the number of medical staff are crucial factors to prevent the spread. In addition, a modern city is vulnerable to Zika fever due to commuting by train.
Infectious diseases have been serious risk factors in human societies for centuries. Smallpox has been recorded in human history since more than B.C 1100. People have also been suffering from many other infectious diseases such as malaria, cholera, tuberculosis, typhus, AIDS, influenza, etc. Although people have tried to prevent and hopefully eradicate them, a risk of unknown infectious diseases including SARS, a new type of infectious diseases, as well as Ebola haemorrhagic fever and Zika fever have appeared on the scene.
A model of infectious disease has been studied for years. SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model has been widely used to analyse such diseases based on a mathematical model. After an outbreak of SARS, the first SIR model of SARS was published and many researchers studied the epidemic of the disease using this model. When an outbreak of a new type of influenza is first reported, the U.S. government immediately starts an emergency action plan to estimate parameters of its SIR model. Nevertheless the SIR model has difficulty to analyse which measures are effective because the model has only one parameter to represent infectiveness. For example, it is difficult for the SIR model to evaluate the effect of temporary closing of classes because of the influenza epidemic. The agent-based approach or the individual-based approach has been adopted to conquer these problems in recent years [1–4]. The model enables to represent behaviour of each person. It also reveals the spread of an infection by simulation of the contact process among people in the model.
In this study, we developed a model to simulate smallpox and Ebola haemorrhagic fever and Zika fever based on the infectious disease studies using agent-based modelling. What we want to know is how to prevent an epidemic of infectious diseases not only using mechanisms of the epidemic but also decision making of health policy . Most Importantly, we should make a decision in our modern society where people are on the move frequently world wide, so we can minimise the economic and human loss caused by the epidemic.
3.1 Smallpox and Bioterrorism Simulation
Epstein [9, 10] made a smallpox model based on 49 epidemics in Europe from 1950 to 1971. In the model, 100 families from two towns were surveyed. The family includes two parents and two children thus the population is each 400 from each town. All parents go to work in their town during the day except 10 % of adults who go to another town. All children attend school. There is a communal hospital serving the two towns in which each 5 people from each town work. This model was designed as an agent-based model, and then simulation of infectious disease was conducted using the model. As results of experiments showed that (1) in a base model in which any infectious disease measures were not taken, the epidemic spread within 82 days and 30 % of people died, (2) a trace vaccination measure was effective but it was difficult to trace all contacts to patients in an underground railway or an airport, (3) a mass vaccination measure was effective, but the number of vaccinations would be huge so it was not realistic, (4) epidemic quenching was also effective, and reactive household trace vaccination along with pre-emptive vaccination of hospital workers showed a dramatic effect.
4.2 A Base Model of Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever
In the event the active agent contracts the disease, she turns blue to green and her own internal clock of disease progression begins. After seven days, she will turn yellow and begins infecting others. However, her disease is not specified in this stage. After three days, she begins to have vomiting and diarrhoea and the disease is specified as Ebola. Unless the infected individual is dosed with antiviral medicine within three days of exposure, the medicine is ineffective. This is an imaginary medicine to play the policy game. At the end of day 12, individuals are assumed to hospitalize. After four more days, during which they have a cumulative 90 % probability of mortality, surviving individuals recover and return to circulation permanently immune to further infection. Dead individuals are coloured black and placed in the morgue. Immune individuals are coloured white. Other settings are the same as smallpox.
4.3 A Base Model of Zika Fever
About 80 % of cases have no symptoms which is called latent infection, but the latent patients can transmit Zika virus to other mosquitoes. The incubation period of Zika virus disease is not clear, which is likely to be 3 to 9 days. After the incubation period, the symptoms including fever, skin rashes, conjunctivitis, muscle and joint pain, malaise, and headache occur and last for 6 days. Zika virus disease is relatively mild and requires no specific treatment, so any strategies are not selected in the model.
4.4 Vaccination Strategies for Smallpox and Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever
The vaccination strategies we can select in the model are mass vaccination and trace vaccination. Each of them has advantages and disadvantages.
Mass vaccination As preemptive vaccination, the mass vaccination strategy adopts an indiscriminate approach. First all of the medical staff is vaccinated to prevent infection. When the first infected person is recognised, certain per cent of individuals in both towns will be vaccinated immediately. The vaccination rate and the upper limit number of vaccination per day are set on the model for the strategy.
Trace vaccination All of the medical staff is vaccinated as pre-emptive vaccination. Given a confirmed smallpox case, medical staff traces every contact of the infected person and vaccinates that group. In addition of the mass vaccination strategy, the trace rate and the delay days of contact tracing are able to be set according to the model for the trace vaccination strategy.
Trace serum or antiviral medicine dosing All of the medical staff is given serum or antiviral medicine as TAP (Target antivirus prophylaxis). Given a confirmed Ebola hemorrhagic fever case, medical staff traces every contact of the infected person and provides the medicine to that group. In addition to the mass vaccination strategy, the trace rate and the delay days of contact tracing are set according to the model
Hal Turner Radio Show – In March, 2021, the “Nuclear Threat Initiative” Held a “Drill” for MonkeyPox Terror Attack — May 15, 2022 . . . now we have one
Additional Information by Jesus is the Truth
Another link about African green monkey (vero cells) in other vaccines here are the links to that:
Scroll to 6. Read right above it and below:
*COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca contains genetically modified organisms (GMOs).* Any unused vaccine or waste material should be disposed of in accordance with local requirements. Spills should be disinfected using agents with activity against adenovirus.
6. Contents of the pack and other information
What COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca contains
One dose (0.5 ml) contains: COVID-19 Vaccine (ChAdOx1-S* recombinant) 5 × 10^10 viral particles (vp)
*Recombinant, replication-deficient *chimpanzee* adenovirus vector encoding the SARS-CoV-2 Spike glycoprotein. Produced in *genetically modified human embryonic kidney (HEK) 293 cells.*
*This product contains modified organisms (GMOs).*
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